[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N10W 4N20W 4N30W 3N40W...TO 1N53W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N AT
THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N2W 4N6W 4N10W 3N20W 5N26W 5N32W 4N34W
5N40W 6N44W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE
ANALYZED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N60W TO THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N82W TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
NEAR 31N93W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA COMES FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 110W...
ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY
ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN
HONDURAS...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N54W
22N57W AND 16N58W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N50W TO 23N62W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEST OF THE TROUGH ALONG 26N73W BEYOND
32N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W 24N51W 21N60W 20N68W 24N75W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 TO 240 NM NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
33N60W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N82W TO WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 32N22W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N35W TO 10N44W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N37W 16N53W TO THE
GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER NEAR 6N57W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW TRAVELS FROM 8N39W TO THE EAST OF THE 32N22W 10N44W
TROUGH...EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA.

$$
MT

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