[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 4N30W 4N40W 3N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-17W...AND BETWEEN 24-28W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SW
AFRICA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N66W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY
WINDS DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
FOUND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND. SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ALSO DOT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SOUTH OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FROM THE W ATLC. DIURNAL SEABREEZE SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT THE
SMOKE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THANKS TO THE E WINDS BLOWING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON SURFACE
DATA AS WELL AS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-82W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
KEEPING HIGH THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS ON WED AND AFTERWARD OVER CUBA. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS
MODEL FORECASTS A CLOSED LOW TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON WED...THEN MOVES IT SLOWLY N ACROSS
W-CENTRAL CUBA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THIS SOLUTION IS SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. MODERATE TRADEWINDS
DOMINATES CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF 75W. ALOFT...AN E/W RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EPAC. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N48W...THEN CONTINUES SW
AND WEST TO NEAR 26N67W WHERE IT BECOMES A DIFFUSE STATIONARY
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N48W TO 23N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NW OF THE FRONT AND
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY JUST E OF
THE BAHAMAS. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC LOW MAY ALSO FORM IN
THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS. THE E ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 22N50W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH NELY WINDS N OF 18N EAST OF 22W...INCLUDING THE
CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W.

$$
GR






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