[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES E OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
BETWEEN THE TWO CAPE CANAVERAL BUOYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT IT
LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.  PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 4N50W 3N55W.
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA...W OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM EQ-8N
BETWEEN 1W-5W MOVING W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-11W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 17W-23W...AND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 25W-29W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-2N BETWEEN 36W-40W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 36W-39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE
FLORIDA COAST...JUST INLAND OF VERO BEACH...DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF ANDREA.  THIS BAND IS SW OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE W ATLANTIC MENTIONED ABOVE.  NORTH...WEST CENTRAL...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO HAVE SMOKE WITH VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN FOUR MILES DUE TO FIRES IN FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA.  OF
NOTE...AN AREA OF THICK SMOKE IS DEPICTED ON RADAR OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN
80W-82W MOVING E.  A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA
NEAR 28N91W PRODUCING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
83W-100W.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 86W-94W.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DRIFT TO THE NE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE NORMAL
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE
ITCZ HAS PUSHED N AND EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA
ALONG 10N.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-85W... AND S
OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 75W-78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA S TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC...
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
REMNANTS OF ANDREA.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 25N71W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 64W-70W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N11W.  AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 40W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N36W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 30W-50W.
WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA






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