[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.3N 79.8W OR
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. ANDREA
IS MOVING SOUTH NEAR 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS. SMALL WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N79W TO
30N77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N22W 2N34W 3N52W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N E OF 14W TO ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
1N19W-1N28W-4N33W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW IS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW ALSO REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS IS GENERATING
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC
IN WHICH ANDREA IS EMBEDDED. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTING DRY AIR OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA WHICH IS LIMITING
ANY SHOWERS THAT COULD EXTINGUISH SOME OF THE FIRES IN SE
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
BEING REPORTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF
THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 27N91W. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
60/75 NM OF 25N93W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS N TO NE WINDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS IS INDUCING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N78W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-79W.
OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 64W IN WHICH ANDREA IS
EMBEDDED. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING
ANDREA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH
AMERICA ALONG 17N61W TO BEYOND 32N57W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W AND A BROADER AREA OF
SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO BEYOND
32N60W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
24N42W COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 32W-50W GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 25W-42W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W
WITH A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 31N42W.

$$
WALLACE





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