[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA AT 10/2100 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR
29.6N 79.8W OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA.  ANDREA IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ANDREA IS MAINTAINING VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION...ALL E OF THE CENTER.  NWLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND
RELATIVELY COOL SST'S ARE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-30N BETWEEN 78W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 3N50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALL INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN
16W-30W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANDREA IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...AND YET IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY RAIN OVER THE DROUGHT STRICKEN STATE.  TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF SMOKE FROM A LARGE FIRE
OVER SE GEORGIA IS FUNNELING TOWARDS TAMPA FLORIDA REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY.  CYCLONIC SURFACE TURNING IS ALSO
DRIVING SMOKE TOWARDS SE FLORIDA.  FURTHER W...A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N91W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.  A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR 32N98W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE TEXAS
COAST.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA.  THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FLOW S OF 28N.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE NORMAL
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE
ITCZ HAS PUSHED N AND EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA
ALONG 10N.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN BETWEEN 75W-85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA S TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC...
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
ANDREA.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N66W 26N69W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N14W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA






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