[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101206
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 79.8W AT
10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 100 MILES E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND 95
MILES NE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. ANDREA IS GENERALLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION AND DISPLACING THE CONVECTION THAT DOES
EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 4N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER N TO NW FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF ANDREA IS ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF PROVIDING WIDESPREAD
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. MOST OF THE SMOKE PLUMES
ORIGINATING FROM FIRES IN FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA HAVE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE WRN ATLC...STEERED
BY THE DIFFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN ANDREA AND A WEAK 1016
MB HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.  THE HIGH IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY LIGHT 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AIDING IN THE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SEAS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO COME DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH MOST BUOYS/SHIPS NOW
IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS
STATIONARY IN THE MID-GULF...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE NW PORTION AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER N
TEXAS APPROACHES THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CONTINUED WEAK PRES PATTERN IN THE WRN CARIB IS ALLOWING
WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE TRADES
INCREASE TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIB...15-20 KT...AS SFC RIDGING FROM THE NE HAS BUILT INTO THE
REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
ANALYZED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG 20N74W 17N78W
12N79W. THIS...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...IS SUPPORTING
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-80W.
MORE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS OVER
COLOMBIA..PANAMA...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 12N E OF 81W. UPPER
SW FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS TRANSPORTING UPPER
MOISTURE OVER THE CONVECTION NE INTO THE ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA REMAINS THE AREA OF FOCUS THIS
EVENING...FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA HAS CONTINUED TO OVERALL
STEADILY SUBSIDE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RELAX OFF GEORGIA THROUGH SOUTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN ANDREA AND A 1026MB HIGH
PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NEAR 37N55W. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE
TO THE E OF ANDREA...BETWEEN THE STORM'S EMBEDDED TROUGH AND
RIDGING TO THE E...IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS BETWEEN 61W-73W.

FARTHER E...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM A WEAK 1018MB NEAR
31N41W TO 27N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING S OF THESE SFC
FEATURES NEAR 26N45W. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES W OF
PORTUGAL DOMINATES THE E ATLC AREA E OF 40W. UW-CIMMS SAHARAN
AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF DUST E OF ABOUT 30W.
THIS VERY DRY AIR HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE ERN-MOST ATLC.

$$
WILLIS




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