[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 100232
TCDAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A
SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED
BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 30.5N  79.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 30.4N  80.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  80.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 29.5N  80.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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