[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
ACTIVITY IS FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR 30.5N77W...OR
ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE
COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH
STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. THE 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 35-40 KT
WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 CONTINUES TO REPORT SEAS NEAR 20 FT.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THE LOW
IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
MORNING...IF NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WNW INTO THE GULF
NEAR 23N91W. THE BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY A NARROW BAND OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS HAS WEAKENED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...HOWEVER UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
AID IN CONVECTION OVER NE MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE FAR W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
FROM THE CONVECTION INTO THE W GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
KEEPING SKIES FAIR TO MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA NEAR 20.5N76.5W ACROSS THE N PORTION
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF.
PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS SURROUND THE BOUNDARY. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING E/NE TRADES
FAIRLY LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE EXCEPT TO 20 KT IN
THE SE PORTION. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED NE FROM THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY STRONG WSW UPPER FLOW.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM
CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 28N-32N WEST
OF 73W. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE REGION.
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 32N71W ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO SE CUBA. A
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG 31N/32N TO 57N
WHERE IT CONNECTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N47W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23N-26N AND 61W-68W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THANKS TO A
STRONG 1031MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE PORTUGAL. THIS HIGH
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...
STRONGEST E OF 25W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED DUE TO
SOME INVERTED TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. A BAND OF
LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
47W-51W EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC IS COVERED BY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS.

$$
RJW






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