[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 4N20W 2N30W EQ40W 1S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 17W-32W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
MOST PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY WITHIN 200NM OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 10-20 KT E TO
SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REST OF THE GULF. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
AFFECTING THE NW GULF/TEXAS COAST AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING
IS OVER THE WRN GULF WHICH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE
EWD...DOWNSTREAM FROM CONVECTION OVER TEXAS AND THE EPAC.
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER LOW OFF HATTERAS EXTENDS
INTO THE THE NE GULF. MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE E AND
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING MORE SE IN THE WRN
PORTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SFC PRES PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS WEAK DUE TO LOW
PRES IN THE SW N ATLC. SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE MOSTLY REPORTING E TO
NELY TRADES IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE N OF 16N WHERE THE WEAKEST GRADIENT EXISTS. LIGHTER
THAN NORMAL TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A WEAKER
THAN USUAL GRADIENT S OF THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION ARE
AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIB S OF 10N. UPPER SW
FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CARIB AND RIDGING OVER THE
ERN CARIB IS SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
ERN PORTIONS.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE....ANALYZED 998 MB NEAR 33N72W. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SWD FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY
WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH MIAMI RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT TSTMS ARE MORE SCATTERED BETWEEN SFL AND
THE SE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE SEAS AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA AS DESCRIBED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH...AS THE STORM MOVES SSW IT WILL
PROMOTE A CAPTURE FETCH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS
WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE VERY LARGE N/NE SWELL EVENT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE
DETAILS. FARTHER E...A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N62W ATTACHED
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE MAINLY E OF THE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
STRONG AZORES HIGH IS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC
E OF 55W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES...STRONGEST E OF 25W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
TIGHTENED DUE TO LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT S OF 18N E OF 28W WHERE THIS
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS ERODED BY SAHARAN DUST. AN UPPER LOW IS
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N24W BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

$$
WILLIS




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