[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER AFRICA AND
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM EQ-11N BETWEEN 7W-17W. ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150NM N AND 90NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-33W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 36W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF REMAINS STRONGEST W OF 90W IN
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED SE WIND WAVES AND SWELL
TO BUILD INTO THE 6-9' RANGE FOR THE WRN GULF. ASIDE FROM A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION W OF 94W...DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS AT A MINIMUM ACROSS THE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN GULF IS SPREADING UPPER
MOISTURE EWD INTO THE GULF MAINLY W OF 90W. MOSTLY DRY MID TO
UPPER AIR IS OVER THE ERN PORTION WITH NW FLOW. SE FLOW AND SEAS
REMAIN HIGHEST WRN PORTION THROUGH SUN. BACKDOOR FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF LATE SUN INTO MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADE FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL AS THE TYPICAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE SFC TROUGHING IN THE SW NORTH
ATLC. UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OFF NE SOUTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SSW
THROUGH FLORIDA INTO THE NW PORTION. THIS IS TRANSPORTING UPPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS
AFFECTING THE SW CARIB NEAR BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA. FAIRLY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TRADES IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC...
A SFC TROUGH ALONG 29N58W 24N66W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA
REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE WRN ATLC TONIGHT. A 1013MB
LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 27N61W AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC
FEATURES...UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGHING IN THE WRN
ATLC AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 22N BETWEEN
46W-64W. ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THIS AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS TO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING GALE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE NLY
SWELLS. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2 AND
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS
DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1032MB SFC HIGH E OF THE
AZORES NEAR 39N20W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW NEAR
27N28W BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

$$
WILLIS




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