[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N11W 2N18W 3N40W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
440W TO 55W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING FROM NE ACROSS ARKANSAS
GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER SE
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 88W-91W. THE W GULF IS
DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND IS PUSHING THE THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC AND S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. AS LAST
NIGHT...STILL NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE GULF AND WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
TO CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 15N W OF 74W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E
VENEZUELA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-80W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION REMAINS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
OTHERWISE THE W AND E CARIBBEAN REMAIN DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 76W.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG
74W FROM 21N-32W WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR
30N74W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 60W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 32N TO THE N
COAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 67W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE





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