[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W 2N45W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 4W-9W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 21W-26W...
AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
28N85W.  10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED GOING AROUND THE
HIGH.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
ALONG 29N92W 26N94W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.   MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND
OVER SRN OKLAHOMA NEAR 34N96W MOVING E.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
INLAND E TEXAS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 93W-96W MOVING E.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N84W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN
80W-82W MOVING N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  EXPECT BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS TO MOVE
E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THUS THE CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS WILL
BRUSH THE N GULF AND MOVE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... WHILE THE
CONVECTION OVER INLAND FLORIDA WILL MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN
87W-89W.  ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
78W-82W.  FURTHER S... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA ALONG 9N PRODUCING CLUTTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
76W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E
VENEZUELA NEAR 6N65W.  MOST OF THE SEA E OF 80W HAS SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N73W 24N74W
29N73W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA ...THE
SRN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 68W-80W.  THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 26N67W IN 24
HOURS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N32W.  THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-65W.  SAHARAN DUST IS
SPREADING W ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS...THICKEST FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS EWD.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 35W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN.

$$
FORMOSA





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