[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING WRN AFRICA AND
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 3S-11N BETWEEN 2W-12W. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS ALSO WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRES NEAR OCRACOKE NC CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW
OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 15-20 KT
E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IN TURN ARE GENERATING
MODERATE WIND WAVES AND SWELL...MOSTLY IN THE 4-6' RANGE EXCEPT
LARGER IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS AT A MINIMUM OVER THE GULF THOUGH STRONG TSTMS CURRENTLY
OVER ERN TX WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY AFFECT THE NW GULF
LATER TODAY. KEY WEST RADAR DATA SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TAIL END OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC. RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF IN ADVANCE
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING MOVING E OF THE ROCKIES. DRY/STABLE
MID TO UPPER AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE BASIN ASIDE FROM BROKEN
CIRRUS OVER THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE SFC WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIB THIS
MORNING...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING FELT IN THE ATLC
PASSAGES AS STRONG REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUILDS IN. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A
BAND OF 25-30 KT NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED IN THESE EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NE
CARIB LATER TODAY. A BAND OF PREFRONTAL LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN NRN NICARAGUA AND HAITI OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS
ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CARIB ESPECIALLY S OF 16N E OF
75W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATING THE WRN ATLC IS MOSTLY N OF
THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND A
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W AND CONTINUES SW
TO NEAR 21N73W. A NEWLY FORMED 1006 MB LOW IS ALONG THE FRONT
NEAR 29N53W WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE MID TO UPPER LOW JUST
TO ITS W. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
ADVECTING INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA N OF 22N
BETWEEN 60W-78W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING DOMINATING THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE IN THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING...N OF 26N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A REMNANT SFC TROUGH
REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WATERS...ALONG 32N44W 20N52W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 250 NM MAINLY E OF THIS TROUGH...ESPECIALLY N OF 20N. A
1004 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 28N46W...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA DURING SAT. MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS. A
1028 MB SFC HIGH IS BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA
ISLAND...WHICH IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 35W.

$$
WILLIS


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