[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2S50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-30W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N BRAZIL
FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W.
RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT E TO ESE SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  NO CONVECTION OR SHOWERS
ARE NOTED IN THE GULF.  A COLD FRONT WITH A MASSIVE AREA OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INLAND OVER NE TEXAS N OF 31N TO
NEBRASKA.  ELSEWHERE...UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
INLAND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 97W-100W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.  A
THIN BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 28N MOVING E.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY OVER THE GULF FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE MAINLY SWLY FLOW.  ALSO EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND N
VENEZUELA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 66W-78W DRIFTING N.  A 1010 MB LOW
IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W.  20-25 KT TRADES COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE
TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 74W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE TRADES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE PASSING
SHOWERS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED S OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N49W
24N60W DISSIPATING TO FLORIDA ALONG 22N70W 25N78W 30N82W MOVING
SE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1006 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 24N50W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO
20N52W 17N60W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 37W-44W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N21W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-75W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
25W-50W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-25W.  EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHING AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E ATLC.

$$
FORMOSA


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