[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 2N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N18W 3N21W 2N26W 1N29W...AND SOUTH OF 1N
BETWEEN 29W AND 43W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 30W AND
43W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...AND
FROM 3S TO 6S BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...
INTO MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...THROUGH 21N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N91W
AND BEYOND 31N90W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE GULF
WATERS SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 88W...WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVERING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1022 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N76W
TO 28N81W OVER FLORIDA...TO 23N82W IN CUBA...AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W. EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE
TO STAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED WARM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN THE GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA...TO WESTERN
NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND BEYOND 21N92W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD AND WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA WEST
OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM
15N65W BEYOND 20N65W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVEN BEYOND
22N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 23N64W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE REALLY
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 15N69W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST
OF 60W ARE WELL DEFINED AND EASY TO LOCATE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 39W FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 31N. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A MEDITERRANEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 30N9W IN NORTHERN MOROCCO
TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MOROCCO...AND EVEN TO 17N21W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 20N...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND
AREAS OF MOROCCO...MAURITANIA...AND ALGERIA. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 31N26W TO 26N33W TO 21N39W TO 16N43W TO 9N52W.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT IS 31N39W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N39W TO 26N46W AND 22N56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net