[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N15W 2N30W 2N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
5S-3N BETWEEN 2W-6W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 20W-25W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 29W-33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 40W-43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA
FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N62W IS PRODUCING
10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  NIGHT
CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS
OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 92W MOVING E.  EXPECT ONSHORE
FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICAN
COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG
20N70W 18N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W ALSO
MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...NRN SOUTH AMERICA...AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N62W IS PRODUCING ELY
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  RESIDUAL BANDS OF
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA.  A COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 31N52W TO 27N60W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTS.  A VERY STRONG 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 44N28W.  A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W PRODUCING STRONGER THAN
NORMAL NE TO E SURFACE FLOW WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W.  A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 45W WITH
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 35W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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