[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 3W20W EQ30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W.
AXIS IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN FROM
EQ-7N BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THERE ARE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT S OF 27N BETWEEN
85W-898W. ALSO SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS NOTED IN THE WRN
GULF AND TX/LA COAST W OF 92W...WITH MOIST SE FLOW. CLEAR SKIES
ARE THE NORM ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...BROAD WNW TO NW FLOW PERSISTS IN
WAKE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SSE THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
ESPECIALLY S OF 26N. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE ERN TIP OF
CUBA...THROUGH WRN JAMAICA AND INTO THE NW CARIB WATERS TO NEAR
16N82W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NE OF
THE AREA. N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE
TYPICAL...MODERATE TRADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...FLOW IS
MOSTLY SW TO WSW AROUND UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND
RIDGING EXTENDING N THROUGH THE FAR ERN CARIB. VERY DRY MID TO
UPPER DOMINATES THE FAR NW PORTION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIB E OF 80W...SPREADING NE FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC...COLOMBIA...AND WHATS LEFT OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO MON WHILE
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE FLOW DOMINATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HI PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS. FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING
EXTENDING SSE FROM ERN CANADA THROUGH THE ERN U.S. IN ADDITION
TO THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE FRONT...UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS SUPPORTING THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 56W-69W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING...S OF A 1045 MB CENTER JUST NW OF THE AZORES. THIS IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER E
OF 55W. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. THIS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...N
OF 25N BETWEEN 15W-25W. GFS SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP FOR
THE AREA. OTHERWISE SFC HI PRES RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE ERN
AND WRN ATLC AREA INTO EARLY WEEK...WITH CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO HIGH'S SUPPORTING A LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC.


$$
WILLIS


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