[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N11W 3N30W TO NEAR EQ48W. THE ITCZ HAS
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS AND WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 85W AND CONTINUES TO
DIG SEWD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA WSW TO
24N90W AND 25N95W. THE FRONT IS MOVING SE 20 KT. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
HAS MOVED INTO THE WRN BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE E OF SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE W OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND SW ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WAS ALONG 75W MOVING E 35
KT. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SE
CUBA AND THE SE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SWLY WINDS ARE
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER N SOUTH AMERICA. TRADE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE WRN
CARIB AS LOW PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND ERN PORTIONS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES EWD. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDS FROM 31N75W SSW TO THE NRN BAHAMAS AND
IS MOVING E 20 KT. THE TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N42W TO 24N50W AND IS DIFFUSE BACK TO 23N60W
TO 28N70W. THE WRN PORTION IS MOVING N AS A BAND OF LOW AND MID
CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT N OF 29N NEAR 42W.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A STRONG HIGH WAS LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION ALONG 30W AND
EXTENDS SW OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A STRONG NE
WIND WHICH IS MOSTLY DEVOID OF CLOUDINESS N OF THE CAPE ISLANDS.
THE AIR PICKS UP MOISTURE AS IT MOVES SW AND BROKEN LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS W OF 27W. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE WWD
BECOMING MOSTLY SCATTERED W OF 55W. THE ENTIRE AREA IS N OF 8N
IS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A SUBTROPIC JET IS EVIDENT FROM
NEAR 15N61W TO 18N52W THEN HEADS ESE TO 13N20W. ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE JET INDICATING A MOSTLY DRY UPPER
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. A UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 32N20W
MOVING S 20 KT AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

$$
RRG




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