[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 2N29W 1N41W EQ46W 1S51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-41W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-21W AND FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE GULF THANKS TO A 1023 MB HIGH
PRES SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W. SFC OBS AND
NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES SHOW LIGHT MAINLY ELY WINDS AND ONLY
SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WRN GULF. IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WNW
FLOWING AROUND UPPER RIDGING IN THE TROPICAL EPAC EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SWLY FLOW ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WRN GULF...W OF 93W FROM 22N-26N.
MODESTLY DRY AIR EXISTS ELSEWHERE AIDING IN THE WIDESPREAD
TRANQUIL WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LITTLE PATTERN
CHANGE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT AND THE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS IS HINTING AT DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
MID-GULF LATE FRI/SAT WHICH MAY ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS DRIFTING W NOW LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS AN AREA OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH LIE ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM 14N-20N W OF 86W. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS
RUNNING UPSLOPE SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN LIKELY PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE FAIRLY TYPICAL CONDITIONS EXIST WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADES AND THIN PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING W ACROSS THE SEA. ALOFT...THE FLOW IS RATHER
ZONAL WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE REGION
PREVENTING THE MOISTURE PATCHES FROM ACQUIRING MUCH VERTICAL
DEPTH. THE WEAK LOW/SFC TROUGH IN THE NW CARIB WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT W LIKELY DISSIPATING LATER TODAY...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SLIGHT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
ATLC W OF 50W EXTENDING SWD FROM A LARGE STRONG POLAR LOW. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING IN THE REGION ANALYZED
STATIONARY ALONG 32N46W 25N62W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 240
NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. THE CLOUDS APPEAR THICKEST OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY BE DEVELOPING. SE
OF THE FRONT SKIES ARE MAINLY FAIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE NE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. LOOKING
AHEAD A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX WILL GRADUALLY
PULL EWD BUT IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT
FOR WEAK SFC TROUGHS/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SW
OF THE AZORES IS DOMINATING THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC E OF
45W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PARTICULARLY E OF
30W. THE ONCE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW HAS NOW OPENED INTO A TROUGH
ALIGNED ALONG 34W. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO THE E
OF THE TROUGH IS STILL GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM
10N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 23W-35W. HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS CONSIDERABLY THINNER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH PULLS NWD AND
DISSIPATES THRU FRI. FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE THEME FOR MOST
OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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