[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN
4W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC
COVERING THE E GULF E OF 87W LEAVING THE ENTIRE GULF WITH W TO
NW UPPER FLOW. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE SW GULF S
OF 26N W OF 85W. DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN REIGNS ACROSS
THE GULF SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY
SHOWERS OR CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
MODERATE N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER LIGHT N TO NE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NEAR 16N84W. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. CONFLUENT FLOW AND THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINTAINS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA TO THE
NE TIP OF HONDURAS INCLUDING ALL OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE TROPICS INTO THE CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY
HAS RETREATED EASTWARD AND ONLY COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ESPECIALLY E OF 80W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE PRIMARY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N53W SW TO ACROSS THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W WHILE A SECONDARY PUSH IS AGAIN
MOVING S FROM THE NW ATLC AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER BERMUDA
TO 31N74W BUT IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. A BANK OF DENSE CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THERE TO 78W.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC HAS BECOME NARROW AS THE
UPPER LOW FROM THE TROPICS BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THE
UPPER RIDGE OF THE TROPICS HAS BECOME EQUALLY AMPLIFIED. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION S OF 30N W OF 45W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N43W SW ALONG
19N47W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W. VERY DRY AIR IS
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 50W-65W SEVERELY
LIMITING CLOUDS AND THUS SHOWERS. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE E TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE WITH A
PEAK NEAR 27N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING BY A 1032 MB S OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N28W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net