[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N20W 5N23W 3N35W 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE E US INTO THE
NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 26N WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC BECOMING
STATIONARY THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W TO 22N88W
THEN S OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. JET STREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 NM ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF A LINE
FROM 23N98W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W THAT TRANSPORTING A
NARROW BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS N
MEXICO AND THE FAR SE GULF STATES INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF S OF THE JET STREAM. AT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE
FINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP OVER THE W GULF AND ALONG THE E SLOPE
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED THERE.

CARIBBEAN...
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT ANTILLES
NEAR HISPANIOLA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS AND NE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS FEATURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ESPECIALLY E OF 80W. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS IS GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...BELOW GALE FORCE.  PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIVEN BY THESE WINDS
ARE MOVING W FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE
ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER THE SW ATLC AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY N WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN THE
NW ATLC WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPES INTO THE REGION
ALONG 32N63W SW TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 24N80W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. JET STREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS N OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO BEYOND 32N55W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE UPPER HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N50W COVERING THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATE THE REGION S OF 30N W OF 60W AND S OF 25N FROM 45W-60W
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF A COLD FRONT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ALONG 25N30W
18N43W TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N55W UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
PAIR OF 1027 MB OVER THE NE ATLC ALONG 32N35W TO THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 23W S OF 21N. TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.

$$
WALLACE


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