[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N23W 2N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 41W INTO NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. CLUSTERS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N W OF 30W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE W ATLC AND OVER THE
N GULF N OF 26N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A WEAKENING
1009 MB LOW NEAR 26N96W CONTINUING S AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE STATIONARY PORTION IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE NW AS A WARM FRONT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRIER AIR EXTENDS
FROM GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N87W TO TEXAS
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI...BUT IS ALREADY LOSING ITS IDENTITY. DENSE
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N88W TO OVER FLORIDA
NEAR TAMPA. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N84W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N79W
INTO THE W ATLC. THIS FEATURE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLC AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION IS GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
POSSIBLY USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US INTO W ATLC
IS N OF 28N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N74W SW ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
BEYOND 32N75W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N79W INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND
32N58W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY UPPER AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION S OF 30N W OF 45W
LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY E OF THE W ATLC/GULF COLD FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION
THROUGH 32N54W SW TO 25N71W. MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N35W SW ALONG 25N47W TO 17N51W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DIPPING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N32W TO 29N40W. A RE-ENFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR IS JUST N OF THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST TO THE SW OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 22N54W TO 12N57W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR WITHIN 300/350 NM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE APEX NEAR 21N35W AND
BEGINNING TO OVERRUN TO MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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