[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N25W 1N35W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJOR STORM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING STRONG SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF. THESE WINDS ARE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FRI MORNING. AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
EPAC...JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO EXTENDS A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. W TO NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF AND THE STATE
OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A BIT LIGHTER SE FLOW IS
SEEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AROUND THE SW PORTION OF ATLC HIGH
PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA. THE TRADES ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE
CLOUD COVER IS SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB WATERS WHERE THE
TRADES ARE STRONGEST. ALOFT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN CARIB. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING OVER W CUBA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1004 MB SFC LOW
IS OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS LOW IS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W THEN CONTINUES SW TO
NEAR 26N765W. A SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TODAY. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A SFC TROUGH...
POSSIBLE REFECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE
E BAHAMAS FROM 21N-26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY THE 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED WEST OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N24W...WHICH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC AS WELL...THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY AIR
IS N OF 12N OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 40W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARM WATERS.

$$
GR





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