[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302250
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 13N33W TO 4N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THERE
IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE E OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 69W/70W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AFRICAN DUST THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 96W IS NOW IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N20W 8N33W 6N45W 5N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 34W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS NEAR 28N94W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W GENERATING SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA/E TEXAS AND IN
THE W GULF WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N93W TO 25N96W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 89W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. A
1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE W ATLC.
OTHERWISE...SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E
GULF N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW THROUGH AN UPPER
HIGH NEAR 18N83W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON HEATING IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
JAMAICA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N81W BUT IS ONLY
GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED
TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N78W WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA TO 33N BETWEEN 72W-77W. A 1014 MB LOW
LOCATED OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND OFF
THE COAST FROM 25N-28N W OF 78W INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND
ANDROS ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM 38W-72W WITH A PORTION DIPPING S OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
UPPER FLOW WITH ONE LOCATED IN THE REGION NEAR 29N58W. A SMALL
LOW LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N55W TO 20N64W.
BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 15N/16N TO 36W
AND COVERS THE NE ATLC E OF 27W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE


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