[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Jun 30 13:16:09 CDT 2007


AXNT20 KNHC 301811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO
THE ITCZ.  A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO
W AFRICA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67/68W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER INLAND VENEZUELA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
64W-69W.  A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO
40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SRN MEXICO
TO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 96W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOVING BELOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE E PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 5N50W 6N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 8W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-25W...AND FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W.  A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W.  SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5-10 KT
THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 89W-100W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 86W-91W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE
HIGH TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW.  THE LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE NE TO THE GEORGIA
COAST AND WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W.  A TIGHTENING OF
THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 83W-85W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N81W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS BETWEEN 70W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY SMALL AND WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N59W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
27N-28N BETWEEN 54W-56W.  AN UNRELATED AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 56W-59W.
A DOMINATE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N41W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W.  DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 74W-78W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N44W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
21N24W.

$$
FORMOSA


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