[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 800 MB TO
600 MB CONFIRM THE WAVE OFF THE SURFACE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 94W/95W SOUTH OF 22N...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY COVERED BY A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN
BELIZE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 89W AND 100W
MAY BE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH RESPECT TO
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST...AND SOME MAY BE AIDED BY
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N14W TO 8N32W TO 6N40W TO 6N58W
IN NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 9N
BETWEEN 9W AND 13W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...FROM 5N
TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W...AND FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 31W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N111W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN MEXICO IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CENTER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AND UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR THE SURFACE FORECASTS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA BY 72 HOURS. SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W.
THE 500 MB PATTERN SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48
HOURS...WITH A TROUGH ENTERING THE PICTURE FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS
IN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE ALONG 82W STARTS OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...AND IT RETURNS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...IN THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN PANAMA.
THE ITCZ FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES 9N77W. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PRESENT IN THAT PART OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 29N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N42W AND 24N45W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE
32N40W 24N45W TROUGH.

$$
MT

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