[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300621
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N29W 9N32W 3N32W
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 800 MB
TO 600 MB CONFIRM THE WAVE OFF THE SURFACE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N63W TO 14N65W AND
THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 15 TO
20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 91W/93W SOUTH OF 22N...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO EAST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY COVERED BY A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA AT 14N NORTHWARD 20N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA MAY BE RELATED TO THE TROUGH
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
EAST...AND SOME MAY BE AIDED BY TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 9N28W TO 8N40W TO 8N50W TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W...FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...AND FROM 8N30W 6N40W 2N50W TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 11N51W
IS SENDING CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W SHOOTING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N111W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN MEXICO IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CENTER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.
THE OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN
107W AND 110W ARE MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW/ TROUGH GOING TOWARD THE 20N111W CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W
IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR THE SURFACE
FORECASTS BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA BY 72 HOURS.
SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEST OF 90W. THE 500 MB PATTERN SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE FOR THE
FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A TROUGH ENTERING THE PICTURE
FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS IN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE ALONG 82W STARTS OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...AND IT RETURNS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING
REGIMES OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N63W
TO 14N65W AND THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N74W 9N77W 7N79W...IN THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN PANAMA.
THE ITCZ FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES 9N77W. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PRESENT IN THAT PART OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N68W 31N78W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N60W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 27N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION GOES FROM 25N TO 28N BEFORE 54W AND 56W.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N41W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N44W AND 23N48W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE
31N41W 23N48W TROUGH.

$$
MT

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