[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W WAS RELOCATED BASED ON LONGTERM
SATELLITE LOOP FROM 14N28W TO 5N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST THAT EXTENDS E TO 30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W/90W
S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS WAVE
PREVIOUSLY BROKE OFF AND IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
FLORIDA...SEE DETAILS BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N21W 11N28W 7N38W 7N49W
5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-12N E OF 18W TO THE COAST.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 18W-27W
AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N96W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING N TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W MOVING N TO OVER LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...
PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW THROUGH AN UPPER
HIGH NEAR 15N74W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE ITCZ AXIS INT HE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N W OF 78W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING
OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH ALREADY EXTENDING FROM 24N80W OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 32N80W. THIS TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE
E OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N70W TO
25N76W INCLUDING THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 32W-72W WITH
A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW.
EQUALLY SMALL LOW LEVEL LOWS ARE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR 27N51W AND 25N57W BUT ARE ANALYZED AS SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO 31N49W AND FROM 21N58W TO 29N55W
RESPECTIVELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM RADIUS OF 27N51W AND FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 53W-60W.
BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 18N16W ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC TO 12N58W AND COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 32W.
OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 75W
WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE


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