[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 15 KT HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 7N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W S OF 22N
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF
DUST THAT EXTENDS E TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.  THE WAVE IS
ALSO MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CONVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 88W S OF
23N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE E
OF AN UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTING OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 21N BETWEEN 84W-88W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N43W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF 24W BETWEEN 7N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ALONG 30N. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF...BUT EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DEBRIS COVERS THE PORTION S
OF 26N W OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W. RIDGING WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W. EXPECT TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE E CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N/31N W OF 24W. AS A RESULT
ELY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 20W AND 70W. IN UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
65W-80W. A TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N32W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N FROM THIS UPPER HIGH TO BEYOND 30N30W.

$$
MUNDELL

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