[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 15 KT HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 7N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W S OF 22N
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF
DUST THAT EXTENDS E TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.  THE WAVE IS
ALSO MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 23N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LOW
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTING OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N34W 11N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF 21W BETWEEN 7N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 31W-44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ALONG 30N. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DEBRIS
COVERS THE PORTION S OF 27N W OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. RIDGING WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W. EXPECT TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W
AND 70W. IN UPPER LEVEL A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N48W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N35W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS N FROM THIS UPPER HIGH TO BEYOND 30N30W.

$$
MUNDELL



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