[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 55W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF DUST
THAT EXTENDS E TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.  THE WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF A MID ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 52W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S OF COSTA RICA ALONG
27N80W 17N82W 4N83W.  IT IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  THE NRN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...N OF CUBA...HAS CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLANTIC.  THIS CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CRESTING OVER CUBA.  THE SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W OVER SRN MEXICO S OF 23N MOVING W AT
15 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 9N50W 10N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 14W-21W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT ELY TO SELY RETURN FLOW FROM A
SURFACE HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S FLORIDA
... AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 99W.  SEE
ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W.  SCATTERED RAIN
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 84W-94W.  EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GULF FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N76W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 87W-88W...AND IS OVER
THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 78W-81W.  RIDGING WITH
WLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 78W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W.  ANOTHER 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N26W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  A TROUGH
IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-65W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N48W.  A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N35W.
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N FROM THIS UPPER HIGH TO BEYOND 30N30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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