[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44/45W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF A MID ATLC UPPER
TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 8N WITHIN 120 NM W OF
THE WAVE...AND S OF 10N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE. A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W S OF 26N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS IN DIFFLUENT AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE. THE
UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS STILL
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE. EAST OF THE WAVE...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CRESTING ALONG 75W WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG 80W FROM 20N TO 27N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 22N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W NEARLY IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT IS
CENTERED NEAR 21N92W WITH ITS UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NE
TO 24N82W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS PRIMARILY OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N14W 7N19W 8N39W 8N49W 6N57W. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION ARE ALONG AND S OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W AND 29W...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN 60 NM N
AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 30W TO 44W WHERE CONVECTION
IS ENHANCED E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W DESCRIBED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER CYCLONES ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N84W AND 21N92W. RIDGING FROM
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS DOMINATES THE NW GULF AND UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDS E FROM MEXICO INTO THE SW PORTION. AS A RESULT...NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GULF W OF 90W...AND ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
E OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS R OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA TO A CREST NEAR 17N83W. AS A RESULT
STRONG SW UPPER FLOW W OF 75W AND WLY FLOW E OF 75W. ABUNDANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED W OF 80W AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND
70W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 15N E OF 80W AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA E OF 70W. FAST MOVING TRADE WIND CUMULUS IS NOTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 67W. BETWEEN
65W AND 45W AN UPPER TROUGH IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N48W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH...WITHIN 440 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N44W 11N63W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC ALONG 31N13W TO 24N24W...AND
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA ALONG 17N TO 18N21W. BERMUDA
HIGH DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICS E OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$
MUNDELL

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