[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271826
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A
PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AXIS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 24N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  A
GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF
CUBA.  A GOOD POTION OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER IS ATTRIBUTED TO
UPPER LEVEL INTERACTION.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS...STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 22N
MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-90W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 86W-88W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 8N40W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-21W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-33W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 37W-43W...
AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 43W-48W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS N OF THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT ELY TO SELY RETURN FLOW FROM A
SURFACE HIGH N OF BERMUDA.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING
FLORIDA... AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  BOTH TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.
SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W.  ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH BOTH TROPICAL WAVES OVER
FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
81W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE N COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-86W.  A PATCH OF AFRICAN
DUST IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W-90W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W DOMINATING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
RIDGING WITH WLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N64W.  ANOTHER 1030 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES FROM 20N-30N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...  A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  A RIDGE
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N47W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N34W.

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net