[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N33W TO 16N30W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. BROKEN
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W AND WITHIN 180 NM
E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-24N ALONG 67W MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W AND
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 18N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM 8N-21N ALONG 81W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION W OF JAMAICA WITHIN 30 NM OF 17.5N80W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N32W 8N42W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N14W AND WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE 7N30W 4N40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 20N101W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N TO CREST AT 30N101W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 93W. CENTRAL GULF IS DOMINATED BY A SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N86W TO 23N88W. AT THE LOW LEVELS
WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 26N83W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF TROUGH IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 22N74W 12N80W. UPPER FLOW W OF TUTT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
SE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN...NE OF LINE 20N87W 17N75W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NE INTO SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OTHERWISE...
DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N63W INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N75W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
24N63W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 32N60W. MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM CONVECTION IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CARIBBEAN IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N72W 26N68W TO
32N54W. DRY UPPER AIR IS WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
14N60W 31N42W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA TO 17N27W.
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MUNDELL



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