[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 4N31W TO 15N27W MOVING WEST NEAR
12 KT. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA S OF 9N E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N TO 24N ALONG 64W AND IS MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF
17N. SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED WITHIN 660 NM E OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM 7N TO 20N ALONG 77.5W AND IS MOVING
WEST AT 12 KT. CONVECTION IS FLARING NEAR CUBA WITHIN 30 NM OF
20N78W AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N76W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N24W 9N30W 8N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE 8N14W 13N9W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 4N34W 8N41W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N99W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 30N101W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO W OF LINE FROM 25N77W TO TO 19N93W. THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CENTRAL GULF ARE DOMINATED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N85W TO 25N88W. AT THE LOW LEVELS WEAK CYCLONIC
TURNING IS NOTED AND A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 24N85W TO
28N82W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TILL OCCURRING
OVER THE NW WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING SE OVER GULF
E OF LINE 28N95W 21N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH...TUTT..EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 21N74W 11N80W. UPPER FLOW W OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE SE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN...NE OF LINE 20N87W 17N75W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE...FROM
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA....NE INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N63W INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N75W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  AT LOW LEVELS A WEAK TROUGH IS SITUATED
ALONG 76W N OF 23N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 32N60W. A MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING
FROM CONVECTION IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CARIBBEAN...IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N72W 26N68W TO
32N54W. DRY UPPER AIR IS WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
14N60W 31N42W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA TO  17N27W.
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MUNDELL



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