[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 4N30W TO 13N26W MOVING WEST NEAR
15 KT. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
NOTED FROM 4N TO 10N WITHIN 120 NM W AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA E OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 6N64W TO 20N63W
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING W
THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE FROM
16N TO 13N...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED E
OF THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE OVER INTERIOR S
AMERICA. SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED WITHIN 700 NM E OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 18N AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15
KT. CONVECTION FLARED OVER JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
DISSIPATING AT THE MOMENT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE ONLY TRADE WIND
CUMULUS IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N WITHIN 300 NM
OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N23W 8N32W 6N41W 8N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM
OF 8N21W AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N99W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS TO NEAR 27N97W.
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ADVECTED
EASTWARD OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF ARE DOMINATED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
31N85W TO 23N88W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF. CONVECTION WAS ALSO ENHANCED OVER
THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW
SPREADING SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES IS
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. ELY RETURN FLOW IS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER
THE S CENTRAL AND W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH...TUTT..EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH UPPER NW FLOW W OF 80W AND SW FLOW E OF 80W. SOME UPPER
MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE OVER THE NW PORTION...AND IS MERGING
WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION THAT FLARED OVER
CUBA THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS ALSO FLARED OVER JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INCREASING E OF
65W AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N69W INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N74W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A WEAK TROUGH LIES ALONG
24N74W 30N75W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 26N44W WITH A
TROUGH S TO NEAR 15N52W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N61W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N54W. THE BROAD REMNANTS
OF FRONT ARE NOTED FROM 31N60W TO 27N70W. A MOISTURE PLUME...
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE 21N71W 27N67W TO BEYOND 32N54W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED
N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W AND WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE 14N59W 31N41W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA TO NEAR
17N27W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W.

$$
NELSON




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