[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED USING AN EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOP AT 1952 QUICK
SCAT PASS. THE WAVE NOW EXTENDS NE FROM 3N24W TO 16N21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONLY ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AT
10N22W. WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 18 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W TO THE S OF 18N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE AXIS...AND DUST IS
OBSERVED E OF THE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W...LITTLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS INDICATED...ONE TSTM IS DISSIPATING W OF THE WAVE
NEAR 8.8N57.8W. A 2130 UTC QUICK SCAT SHOWS A WIND SHIFT AT
15N56W BUT WIND BARBS ARE SUSPECT.  BUOY 41101 AT 14.6N 56.2W
HAS ABOUT A 2O DEG BACKING OF WINDS AT 23Z...INDICATING WAVE
AXIS COULD BE JUST A FEW MILES TO ITS EAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 70W TO THE S OF 13N MOVING W
AT 15 TO 20 KT. CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEAS BUT LARGE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE NOTED WELL INLAND COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 5N34W 5N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 5N31W AND
6N44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 20N97W AND RIDGES NE
DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A CREST OVER N GEORGIA.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING SE INTO THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
CURRENTLY N OF 26N ALONG 92W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE
SE TEXAS COAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W. THE
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OUT IN THE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF
AND THE SE CONUS. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. ANOTHER BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...S OF 22N E OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 12N83W. A THIN
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED ALONG 15N83W 16N77W AND
CONTINUES NE BEYOND 21N73W. DRY UPPER AIR HAS SPREAD SE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN...AND IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN BOTH AREAS. A FEW TSTMS FLARED OVER W
CUBA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTFLOW SETTING OFF CONTINUED
CONVECTION ALONG THE S AND W COASTS OF CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER E HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. BRISK ELY TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS ALONG 32N67W THROUGH AN
UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N73W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW ACROSS N
CUBA. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTER21N60W WITH A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND 32N57W. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS...IS
ADVECTED SE AND WILL SOON MERGE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A
MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PLUME WIDENS
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE AT 28N58W...AND CONTINUES NE BEYOND
30N58W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 27N40W WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR
18N53W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 7N53W AND RIDGES NE TO NEAR
24N36W. A 500 NM WIDE BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 240
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N35W 16N65W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
NOTED OVER THE E ATLC...ALONG 32N17W 26N32W 5N32W.

$$
NELSON


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net