[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
BEST AREA OF ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
NEAR 14N20W WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID
LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING MORE TO THE
SW TO AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR 5N26W. THE QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM 10 HOURS AGO SHOWED SOME SLY FLOW AND CYCLONIC TURNING
E OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. IN ADDITION...SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM
THIS MORNING JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE N AND E
SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BE ELONGATED MORE TO
SW TO NEAR 5N26W...AND MAY NEED TO BE REPOSITIONED/REORIENTED
MORE TO THE W ON THE UPCOMING ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS REMAINS
A FAIRLY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE THAT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETECT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NELY WINDS JUST W OF THE
AXIS WERE REPORTED BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS THIS MORNING HOWEVER.
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WEAK CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N
TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W S
OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CONVECTION
OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL SE WINDS AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM CURACAO HINTED THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N23W 7N30W 5N36W 9N52W
7N59W.  A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W
AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...PROMPTING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EVIDENT
FURTHER S NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC
ACROSS THE SRN GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 22N. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN DAMPEN OUT...ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NRN GULF WATERS THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SOMEWHAT OVER THE SW GULF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BETWEEN WEAK LOW
PRES OVER SRN MEXICO AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF WILL INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN ATLC THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN...PROVIDING MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN
BASIN...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED EXCEPT FOR ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE ATLC EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING POSSIBLE FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE THE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLC. UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N70W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. FURTHER E...UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W. COPIOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOTED IN THE SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS. SURFACE HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED ROUGHLY 300
NM W OF THE AZORES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALLOWING
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS WELL. E OF 50W...DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR N OF 15N ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NEAR
27N40W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE W OF THE CANARIES NEAR 27N24W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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