[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR
12N18.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48/49W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WEAK
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W S OF 14N
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. POSITION IS
BASED ON CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W TO
THE E PACIFIC MOVING W 15-20 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
E PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 6N40W 7N50W AND INTO
GUYANA NEAR 8N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
21W-25W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR
28N90W. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N-26N WEST OF
95W. ALOFT...FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N93W IS
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHER CARIBBEAN TURNING NWLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 14N87W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA. CONVECTION FROM
THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1013MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR
28N74W. DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E OF THE LOW IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 67W-72W.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF
25N BETWEEN 52W-62W EXTENDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. A 1029 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
37N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF
50W. ALOFT...FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N58W IS
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS NE ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON





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