[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ADDED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 15W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
200 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W S OF 12N IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 14N IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. DIFFICULT
TO DETECT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE E PACIFIC MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS MOVED E OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AREA
OF SHOWERS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N42W 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING
OFF AFRICA CENTERED NEAR 9N18W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW MEXICO ACROSS THE W GULF TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC...INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED ON THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST
ALONG WITH A 1017 MB HIGH OVER CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN WEST
TEXAS IS PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW W OF THE HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. A 1009 MB LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST OF E
PANAMA/COLOMBIA. THIS LOW COUPLED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 12N.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W REMAINS MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK REMNANT LOW PRESSURE 1013 MB LOCATED NEAR 29N76W. DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E OF THE LOW IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 28N73W. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 60W.
UPPER RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
21N63W TO 32N50W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM OF
A LINE FROM 25N65W TO 28N56W TO 31N53W.THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH 400 NM W OF
THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 21N67W...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF 60W BETWEEN 10N AND 25N.

$$
MUNDELL

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