[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N86W ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER EASTERN GUATEMALA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDING OVER THE YUCATAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. WAVE HAS MOVED
E OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 6N42W 6N58W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA...HINTING AT THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE...FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 14W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-30W AND
FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 10N BETWEEN 46W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO ACROSS
THE W GULF TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE AREA W
OF 89W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE SE GULF INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
SMALL 1012 MB LOW IN THE W ATLC TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
83W-86W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A
LINE FROM JUST N OF TAMPICO TO THE BORDER OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE COLOMBIAN
COAST NEAR THE LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A 1009 MB LOW
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF E PANAMA/COLOMBIA. THIS LOW COUPLED
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE AREA ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S/CENTRAL COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N80W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W AND THE AREA S
OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W.
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
BROUGHT IN WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 27N
W OF 58W EXTENDING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N62W S OF
BERMUDA ALONG 30N71W TO JUST N OF THE 1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N66W TO NEAR THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N76W. THE UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA N TO NEAR 26N75W
COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
UPPER HIGH AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 400 NM
SW OF THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N50W
THEN W TO A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W.

$$
WALLACE





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