[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 3N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA S OF 23N BETWEEN 82W-88W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 3N23W 7N38W 9N45W 8N51W 9N58W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...
HINTING AT THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 6N-11N E OF
18W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N24W TO 4N36W AND FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO ACROSS
THE W GULF TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE AREA W
OF 90W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE SE GULF INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT
THE SURFACE...A SMALL 1012 MB LOW REMAINS OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 28N83W IN THE E GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FORT MYERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO TO JUST
N OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE 1016 MB HIGH
IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA AND A 1017 MB HIGH
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE COLOMBIAN
COAST NEAR THE LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER
FEATURE IS ALSO ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A 1007 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG
THE COAST OF E PANAMA/COLOMBIA. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W REMAINS
CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BROUGHT IN WITH STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 29N
W OF 60W EXTENDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST S OF
BERMUDA ALONG 30N71W TO JUST N OF THE 1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE FAR E GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N-30N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA N TO NEAR 27N77W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH TO THE SE NEAR 23N63W.
THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 65W-70W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH 250 NM S OF THE
AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N50W THEN W TO
25N75W. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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