[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
THE AXIS OF THE WAVE CROSS GUYANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING N OF 16N. THE WAVE
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...MAINLY OVER NICARAGUA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD AFFECT BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE SUN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N25W 7N40W 9N43W 9N57W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST COVERING FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
11W-16W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS CREATING SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN TO STREAM NORTH INTO WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF KEEPS THE SFC
WINDS LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND
OVER THE FAR WEST GULF. THE WEAK HIGH PRES OVER NW GULF WILL
DRIFT E AND MERGE WITH ATLC RIDGE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED
SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 70W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
FROM AROUND 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST YESTERDAY. THESE
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. TRADE WIND SHOWERS...CHARACTERIZED BY THEIR SHORT DURATION
AND LIGHT INTENSITY ARE SEEN OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA
ALONG 30N/31N TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST... WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE A SMALL
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE LOW. WINDS REMAIN 10 TO
15 KT AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER
THE W ATLC N OF 25N. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 31N48W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 20N65W GENERATING A NARROW
BAND MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N59W TO 20N63W. THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM
A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED S OF THE AZORES TO 26N57W TO THE CENTRAL
AND SE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT IS PRODUCING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRES
OVER THE CONTINENT. AS A RESULT...THE CANARY ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF GALE FORCE.

$$
GR




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