[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING MAINLY IN NORTHERN
PORTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
4N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 13N BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA SHOWING WAVE PASSING NEAR
21/06Z IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING N OF 16N.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 20N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N22W 8N41W 9N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W
BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N99W
NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS
THE MIDDLE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS CREATING SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS RELATIVELY FLAT AND AS A
RESULT WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FEW AND VERY
LIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N77W TO WESTERN CUBA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS EVIDENT LAST
EVENING...BUT IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. ALL THAT
REMAINS IS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW CLOUD FEATURES.
QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 70W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FROM AROUND
30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST YESTERDAY. THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER 10 FT.
SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA
ALONG 30N TO A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND NEARBY LOW HAVE DISSIPATED OVER
THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. ALSO...THE CLOUD LINES NEAR THE LOW HAVE
BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED WHILE WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT
AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE
BASIN N OF 15N. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 11N38W
IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
39W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES TO 27N41W TO 24N62W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT IS PRODUCING
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
MUNDELL



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