[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 46W WAS RELOCATED ALONG 53W/54W S
OF 13N BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA
MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 73W WAS
DETERMINED TO ACTUALLY BE THE WAVE ANALYZED FURTHER WEST BASED
ON UPPER AIR SOUNDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THEREFORE...THIS WAVE WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE MAP.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE 1010 MB LOW IS NO LONGER ATTACHED TO THE WAVE. BROAD AREA OF
LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDING TO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 21N BETWEEN
80W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N19W 7N31W 7N45W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N15W TO 5N19W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-10N AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 38W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO ACROSS
THE W GULF TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE AREA W
OF 90W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER
THE SE GULF INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A
SMALL 1012 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 26N84W IN THE E GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR GULF E OF 85W. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ADVECTING MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS N OF
21N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NW GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 12N78W N OVER
CUBA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
ALSO ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND A 1010 MB LOW OVER W PANAMA/E COSTA RICA. THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE US MOVING ACROSS THE NW
ATLC EXTENDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS BERMUDA
ALONG 30N71W TO 31N77W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE NE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
S ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OFF THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE N OF 24N W OF 74W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST. A SECOND NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH 32N55W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W. BETWEEN
THESE UPPER TROUGHS IS AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 63W-68W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A
REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS IN THE REGION THROUGH 32N41W
TO 26N46W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES
AND A WEAKER 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N49W. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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