[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N22W 6N34W 8N45W 5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 51W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-42W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF
5N FROM 11W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE SW GULF TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF 87W. A SMALL UPPER HIGH
OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. AT THE SURFACE...A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA GENERATING A NARROW LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO IS ADVECTING MOISTURE WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
W GULF FROM 19N-27N W OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING WITH
A 1020 MB HIGH ALONG THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA FROM
11N-16W W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO 11N81W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ADDING FUEL TO THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 70W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N77W TO TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. SOME WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN
REMAINS SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE US MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
JACKSONVILLE CLEARLY OBSERVED ON RADAR. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N68W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
26N70W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N77W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN
THESE UPPER TROUGHS IS AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM THE E FLORIDA
COAST JUST N OF DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N75W AND TO THE W OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 71W-75W AS WELL AS OVER THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL
ATLC DRAPING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION N OF 24N FROM
40W-55W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N45W TO 28N50W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N43W SW TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AT
THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 54W-68W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER HIGH AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST S
OF THE AZORES. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE






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