[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 24W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO EARLIER TODAY
AND IS MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N22W 6N34W 6N43W 4N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-40W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 12W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE SW GULF TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF 86W. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SMALL UPPER HIGH OVER S GEORGIA TO OVER
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS MOVING ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC DRAPING A SURFACE TROUGH S ACROSS
FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FAR E GULF WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
N OF TAMPA TO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR W GULF
FROM 20N28N W OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S FROM A 1021
MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N-14W W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ADDING FUEL TO THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS
SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE US MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A 1013 MB LOW IS MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
CLEARLY OBSERVED ON RADAR. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 28N71W ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN THESE UPPER
TROUGHS IS AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE E FLORIDA
COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N77W AND TO THE W OF THE
UPPER LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 72W-75W. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW
IS IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION
N OF 25N FROM 40W-55W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W TO 30N47W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SW TO 26N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 57W-68W. A WEAK
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N38W
TO 19N44W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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