[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE IN THE ITCZ OR AWAY FROM THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 12N53W
12N64W 13N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE AND
IT CUTS ACROSS THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO
20N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. IT EASY TO FORECAST THAT THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE AS THE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THAT AREA OF TENNIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE GOES FROM WESTERN HONDURAS THROUGH
EASTERN EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 14N10W TO 6N25W TO 6N32W 6N35W
5N44W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N18W 7N23W 8N27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W
5N34W 5N40W 5N46W 5N49W 5N53W 8N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM WEST TEXAS TO
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 25N105W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 28N ACROSS MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE AREA IS WEAK AGAIN. A SURFACE
RIDGE GOES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM VENEZUELA
PUSHING THE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHEAST OF
18N73W 13N80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF 74W...THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.
THE AREA EAST OF 74W IS COVERED BY A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W TO 14N68W TO NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N76W...JUST
AWAY FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS...IN
ORDER TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...
AND A SURFACE TROUGH NOW FROM 31N54W TO 26N62W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 26N48W...AND A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
74W AND 78W IN THE BAHAMAS...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N48W 28N53W 25N60W 25N65W 24N69W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N EAST OF
40W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N26W.

$$
MT




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