[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...HEAVY AT TIMES
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO RICO ON WED. A WIND
SURGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE
THU THROUGH SAT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PARTS
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
EPAC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 7N25W 5N40W 5N50W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM 10N-15N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM MAINLY N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SW GULF.
THIS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER ALABAMA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM E TEXAS TO N FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE SE U.S. IS ALSO
SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED ON A
HIGH LOCATED OVER E-CENTRAL MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS JUST WEST OF KEY WEST IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM THE SE U.S.. THESE TSTMS ARE N OF 29N
BETWEEN 85W-89W. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S
GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W IN 24 HOURS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WITH 20 KT
TRADEWINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W HAS TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER E-CENTRAL MEXICO IS
PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N54W.
SWLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER HIGH ARE
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
E CUBA TO COSTA RICA TRIGGERING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER E
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DUE TO
THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COUPLE OF
HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N72W AND 26N48W. THE FIRST ONE WILL
DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. A 1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER E OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 21N35W.
MAINLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N55W THEN CONTINUES SW
TO 25N62W. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W-75W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 35W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 35W.

$$
GR





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