[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 12N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  A NEW SURGE OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH AFRICAN DUST IS
JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALSO MOVING W AT 15 KT.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO HAS A SURGE OF DRY STABLE
AIR WITH AFRICAN DUST JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT EXTENDS E TO
30W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 58W-64W.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 15N...
RUNNING FROM ERN HONDURAS THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
ERN NICARAGUA WITHIN 15 NM OF 14N84W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N40W 7N60W.  AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-33W...FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 30N...THUS 10-20 KT SELY TO SLY
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  ON SHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MEXICAN GULF COAST W OF 94W AND THE
ENTIRE N GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 30N97W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.   EXPECT...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER S GEORGIA NEAR
32N82W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE AREA.  SEE ABOVE.  A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W WITH 20 KT TRADEWINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W DUE TO THE ITCZ ALONG 9N.  THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W HAS TROPICAL MOISTURE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N50W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 70W.  EXPECT NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE ERN
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND ITCZ ALONG 9N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W.  A 1016
MB LOW IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 26N64W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
55W-57W.  A 1023 MB HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N48W.  A WEAK 1016 MB LOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N33W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... NLY FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
75W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN
45W-70W.  A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N47W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 40W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA




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